What the headline clearance rate isn’t telling you
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Every Monday morning, someone forwards me a clearance rate and asks if the market’s turning. Usually it’s a “preliminary” figure — reported Saturday night, based on whichever agents phoned it in before the deadline.
Here’s the problem with that number: it’s built on whoever bothered to report, not on what actually happened.
SQM Research takes a different approach. It monitors how agents update their online listings in the days after each auction, since it can take up to 48 working hours for an agent to mark a property as sold, passed in, or re-advertised - and only publishes a result once that settles. The formula is deliberately simple: sold prior plus sold under the hammer, divided by the total number of auctions actually scheduled that week.
Nothing scheduled gets quietly dropped from the denominator because the result didn’t come in on time.
"High quality stock is still moving, it’s often the listings with a flawed floor plan, noise issues or some other imperfection that are struggling."
Why does this matter?
That distinction matters more than it sounds. SQM’s own research shows that same-day reporting from competitors typically miss 20% to 40% of auction results - which is exactly why you’ll often see a pretty good Saturday-night number get revised down by the following Tuesday. The preliminary rate isn’t wrong, exactly. It’s just answering a different question: “what did agents tell us by 6pm?” rather than “what actually sold?”
For last week’s NSW auctions (week ending 28 June 2026), SQM’s final numbers: 871 properties scheduled, 148 sold prior, 135 sold under the hammer, for a clearance rate of 32.49%. Worth noting — that figure blends Sydney’s metro auction activity with regional NSW, where a much larger share of listings get re-advertised as private treaty rather than genuinely contested at auction. It’s a state-wide number, not an Eastern Suburbs one, and treating it as a proxy for what’s happening on the ground in this ‘hood would be a mistake. If you want the number that actually matters for an Eastern Suburbs purchase, you need the suburb data, not the headline.
If you’re in market, you’ll see a wide array of different types of stock having their auction date rescheduled right now. There are buyers around, but their decision making has slowed right down and that means an auction may not quite stack up to drive the intended result. High quality stock is still moving, it’s often the listings with a flawed floorplan, noise issues or some other imperfection that are struggling.
Keep this in mind on your house hunt - it’s never wise to sit back during a search when faced with something you desire. Do your due diligence, move methodically and don't get caught out because you were ill prepared.
Even if you’re not at that stage, but are watching the market, just check you’re clear on the clearance rate methodology you’re reviewing.
Source: SQM Research auction results and methodology, sqmresearch.com.au. Figures current as of 30 June 2026 and may be revised.
Mark Timmins is the founder of Marked Buyers Agency, a Sydney-based buyers agency specialising in the Eastern Suburbs and Lower North Shore. markedbuyersagency.com.au
This article contains general market commentary only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. All market data cited is sourced as attributed. Independent financial and legal advice should be obtained before making any property or financial decision.
