How bad is the market really?
17 Lodge Road, Cremorne
Read the headlines post budget and you'll find the same story dressed up in a multitude of ways: "worst downturn in a decade," "property market crashing," take your pick of ominous verbs. My personal favourite is “no-one wants to catch a falling knife”. (I’d argue that the knife is always in the air, so falling or rising, it’s still a knife in motion).
The crucial insight to remember is that the property market does move in waves, but in ever-increasing peaks.
According to Cotality, the average length of ownership in Bronte is 15 years and in Mosman 14, so could we find some examples of those who’ve bought and sold the same property in the last few years? How badly have they done? Our criteria:
- must have sold in the last 3 months (April-June 2026)
- must have bought sometime since 2021
- Bronte, Mosman and Cremorne
Logic is - repeat sales are the cleanest signal going: same four walls, same land, no guessing about what's "comparable."
Here's what they show.
"The property market does move in waves, but in ever increasing peaks."
Mosman and Cremorne - steady, not earth shattering, gains
Three properties, three outcomes, all pointing in the same direction.
41 Lang Street, Mosman sold for $3.0m in April 2022. It changed hands again in May 2026 for $3.35m — an 11.7% gain over four years. Nothing dramatic, but a clear step up.
22 Cowles Road, Mosman is more interesting, a gorgeous yet simple federation home: bought for $5.6m in April 2024, sold again just two years later for $5.605m. Flat, essentially — a fast in-and-out at breakeven. Useful as a reminder that not everything appreciates on a two-year hold, even in a blue-chip pocket.
Then there's 17 Lodge Road, Cremorne. Bought for $5.425m in December 2022, it sold in May 2026 for $7.25m — up 33.6%. But the property went through an extensive top-to-toe renovation in that time. Strip the reno out and the underlying growth is far more modest. If we assume a $1m reno budget, then the growth is more like 12.8% (but keep in mind it’s difficult to judge how much that renovation would have cost).
"those same (tax) changes strengthen the case to invest in the primary home. It remains a true tax haven."
Bronte - quieter, but not stagnant
Bronte is a tightly held market — most owners don't trade in short timeframes here either. Widening the search to include apartments and pushing the lookback to 2021 turned up four genuine repeat sales, and all but one moved higher:
25 Read Street, a house, sold for $4.85m in August 2021 and again for $5.22m in March 2026 — up 7.6% over four and a half years. Modest, steady, no fireworks.
3/359B Bronte Road, a one-bedroom apartment, went from $631,500 in August 2022 to $760,000 in May 2026 — up 20.4%, the strongest percentage gain in the set. Same caveat as Lodge Road applies, at smaller scale: the unit had a limited renovation in between, in essence a new kitchen, so some of that uplift is money spent, not market moved. Assuming a $50k kitchen, we’re looking more like a 12-13% uplift.
9/65-69 Belgrave Street, a two-bedroom apartment, moved from $1.66m in February 2021 to $1.8m in June 2026 — up 8.4%. Same apartment, no obvious work done.
The outlier: 7/17 Palmerston Avenue sold for $1.37m in June 2021 and again for $1.36m in May 2026 — flat to slightly down. Five years, no growth. It happens, and it's worth remembering when someone
So, how bad is it really?
Not bad. Not booming either — this isn't a "back up the truck" market. But it's not the horrow-show the headlines describe.
Strip out the two properties with renovation spend (Lodge Road, 359B Bronte Road) and you're left with five apples-for-apples comparisons: two flat, three up in the single-to-low-double digits, spread over holds of two to five years. Modest growth and the newest, shortest hold in the sample (Cowles Road, bought 2024) sitting exactly where it started.
So what? I still don’t want to buy now
It’s important to remember that in the primary home market nothing has changed, except sentiment. We are still (sadly) building insufficient new houses. We are still finding many new people want to emigrate to our shores. We are still living in a city constrained by geography and pushed towards the coast. And this isn’t the first time that prices have declined for a period of time.
But right now, auction rooms are empty, buyers are finding themselves alone or perhaps with one other competitor on properties. Buyers have the upper hand. But for how long?
It’s fair to say that the capital gains tax and negative gearing changes may have a greater impact ongoing on investment stock and that this has further to play out. But those same changes strengthen the case to invest in the primary home. It remains a true tax haven.
The "market" isn't one number. It's a collection of individual assets, and the gap between a flat outcome and a 20% gain usually comes down to what was bought, when in the cycle, and what was done to it afterwards. While most people right now are sitting on their hands, waiting to see what might happen in the months ahead, smart buyers are moving ahead with confidence. If you're weighing up whether now's the time to move — up, down, or sideways — happy to walk through what we're seeing street by street. Get in touch.
Mark Timmins is the founder of Marked Buyers Agency, a Sydney-based buyers agency specialising in the Eastern Suburbs and Lower North Shore. markedbuyersagency.com.au
This article contains general market commentary only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. All market data cited is sourced as attributed. Independent financial and legal advice should be obtained before making any property or financial decision.
Sources: Cotality Suburb Profiles, Domain.com.au, Realestate.com.au
