8 ways to mitigate upgrading risk and take advantage of the current market
Bondi Beach Villa. Interiors Handelsmann & Khaw, Architecture Common Office, Photography Anson Smart, courtesy of Est Living
31 July 2026
If you shelved your upgrade plans in autumn, that was the right call. If you're still sitting on the sidelines now, it might not be.
The market is now exceptional for upgraders, with the premium market hit hardest and the upgrade gap shrinking, but many buyers are still frozen with uncertainty.
There are good reasons. Take this cautionary tale of a couple in the Eastern Beaches buying and selling in the same suburb. They bought their forever home in March for just under $9m (noting it was not the fabulous home shown here), and well into the marketing campaign for their current property. They had rejected an offer north of $5m for their existing home hopeful to secure more. When they finally sold a few months later, they’d taken a circa $500k hit on the sale itself, whilst their new purchase simultaneously lost value. Less than ideal.
From March to May (and into June) the market was in freefall, battered by three consecutive rate hikes, war and tax setting changes. Consumer confidence fell off a cliff alongside it. For anyone trying to sell one home and buy another — the exact position most upgraders are in — that combination is nasty.
"in certain Eastern Suburb markets, the fall is closer to 10%. It has been faster and deeper, making that danger period in March-May even more precarious… And while headlines for Sydney-wide falls may continue to make noise, the reality in the East is that we’re way ahead of the game.”
Why the risk has now dropped?
The RBA held in June. Prices are still easing across Sydney. But while the Sydney-wide figure is 3.2% down over the June quarter, in certain Eastern Suburb markets, the fall is closer to 10%. It has been faster and deeper, making that danger period in March-May even more precarious. But for the premium end, things have settled markedly at that lower level. And while headlines for Sydney-wide falls may continue to make noise, the reality in the East is that we’re way ahead of the game. That distinction matters enormously if you're trying to time two transactions against each other.
It means the market is now moving predictably, which is the thing an upgrader actually needs. You can price a sale campaign, price a purchase, and reasonably expect both numbers to hold long enough to settle. That wasn't true in April.
What this means for upgraders…
The best time to transact isn't necessarily when prices are lowest alone — it's also when the gap between what you think will happen and what actually happens is smallest. Right now, with rates on hold and the market repricing in a straight line rather than a scramble, that gap has narrowed considerably.
If you've been waiting for things to "settle" before making a move, this is closer to that than anything the first half of 2026 offered.
8 ways to mitigate upgrader’s risk
1. The obvious - sell first, buy second — with a bridge if you need one. In a repricing market, the biggest danger is locking in a purchase before you know what your own home will fetch. Selling first removes that guesswork. If timing forces you to buy first, negotiate a longer settlement or explore bridging finance.
2. Get a genuine pre-sale valuation, not a hopeful one. With vendor discounts sitting around -4%, agents chasing your listing may quote above what the market will bear. A conservative, evidence-based number protects your purchase budget from a nasty surprise mid-campaign. An independent valuer will charge a hefty fee but that $3-5k may prove to be a valuable investment.
3. Build in a longer settlement gap where you can. A 6-8 week settlement leaves almost no room to absorb a delay on the other side of the transaction. Where you have negotiating leverage — as a buyer in a market with 12%+ more listings than last year — push for 8-12 weeks to give both transactions room to land.
4. Make your purchase offer subject to sale, when the vendor will wear it. It's a harder sell in a competitive auction, but more vendors are open to conditional offers than they were 12 months ago. Worth testing rather than assuming it's off the table.
5. Buy off-market where possible. Auction and open-campaign pricing is volatile week to week right now. An off-market negotiation lets you agree a number directly with a motivated vendor without exposing your purchase to a live, unpredictable auction result — and it sidesteps having your own sale timeline dictated by someone else's campaign date.
6. Stress-test the purchase against a further 3-5% fall. Rates are on hold, not falling yet. If you're buying near the top of your budget, make sure the numbers still work if your target suburb eases a little further before you settle.
7. Use finance pre-approval to move fast on the buy side. Once your sale is secured, speed becomes your advantage — good off-market and quiet-campaign opportunities in the Eastern Suburbs and Lower North Shore move quickly, and pre-approval lets you act on them without a finance clause slowing you down.
8. Don't try to time the exact bottom. The goal isn't picking the lowest point — it's transacting when the gap between expected and actual outcome is small. That's where the market sits now, not where it sat in April.
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*Sources: [RBA Cash Rate Decisions](https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/int-rate-decisions/), [Domain Sydney Auction Results](https://www.domain.com.au/auction-results/sydney/), [CommBank Housing Market Outlook, June 2026](https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/06/housing-market-stabilising-rates-policy-commbank-view.html)*
